A. Bradley Nelson

Chief Marketing Officer

Sotheby's International Realty

Welcome

Welcome to the Sotheby’s International Realty 2023 Luxury Outlook.

We hope this report helps you navigate this fast-moving and ever-changing real estate market.

While conventional wisdom about supply and demand and interest-rate fluctuation would suggest luxury home prices should be falling, we simply did not see that in 2022. Prices, for the most part, remained steady in 2022.

We believe the reasons for prices staying strong are multifold—first, the world’s seen a surge of wealth creation in recent years and the affluent still have more money to spend; second, many luxury purchases are made in cash, so the high-end sector remains somewhat insulated from interest-rate fluctuations. Finally, there’s a lifestyle change resulting from Covid-19 that we believe is here to stay: people are spending more of their time at home and putting more of an emphasis on their home lives, even as the world has opened up. What that means is luxury homeowners can rationalize the expenses of owning multiple properties since they are spending more time in them, and are therefore less likely to put them up for sale. As such, inventory continues to be low coupled with an undersupply of new construction.

Fannie Mae’s November 2022 forecast predicted that home sales will decline but begin to rebound in 2024. Fannie Mae economists also believe mortgage rates will steadily fall, but likely not drop below 6% any time soon.

Despite this, luxury agents remain busy brokering deals for their clients, many of whom are looking to make opportunistic investments during a fluctuating market.

In the pages that follow, we’ll also look beyond the real estate sector, to see what consumers of luxury goods desire, from sustainable luxury items, to record-breaking auction sales, to wine investments. Now more than ever, we know that the affluent want to spend their equity wisely, and we’re here to help them do just that.